A 23-year trend in India’s 1Q consumption of U.S. hardwood lumber reveals the story. The absolute volumes to India are insignificant compared to large-market destinations like Canada, China, or Vietnam, etc.  But, is a trend brewing?

U.S. Hardwood Lumber Exported to India (Jan - Mar '23)

Reasons for asking/noticing:

  • In 2003, China was a footnote in U.S. hardwood lumber/log export analysis (see chart, further below). The “shape of the curve” for Indian purchases of U.S. hardwood lumber (today) is similar to that of China 20 years ago.
  • India is the 2nd most populus country (behind China). India has a 0.8% annual population growth rate, while China’s is 0.1%; and the U.S.’s is 0.1%
U.S. Hardwood Lumber Exported to China (Jan - Mar '23)

What’s next for this watch-list item?: we’ll keep an eye on it, and will get into serious discussion when India’s annual purchase U.S. hardwood lumber tops 100,000 cubic meters for all species.

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