Woodland News

Among the hundreds of trends and economic metrics FORECON tracks, we watch U.S. hardwood log exports closely, because incremental global demand informs markets for our landowner clients’ timber products. 

Looking at Figure 1, below, you’ll note average monthly shipments for all U.S. hardwood logs (all species, combined) are currently near their 2010 levels, despite significant month-to-month volatility. And, during the same 24-year timeframe the average monthly unit-price has increased approximately 40%, caused by both changes in average log grade/quality, and by increased supply chain costs (labor, supplies, insurance, etc.).  

Note: For perspective’s sake, Figure 2 shows the proportion of annual U.S. hardwood log harvests that ultimately are exported in round, log form. 

Separately, if we zoom in, and look at U.S. monthly red oak log exports (Figure 3, below), we see the opposite trend: average monthly shipment volume is about 3.25x the January 2010 level, while average unit price is down 20% during the same timeframe. The most likely cause relates to lower-quality and smaller logs being a significant portion of the increased monthly shipment volume. Some of the monthly volume-increase is a matter of one’s perspective. Because Figure 3’s relative data relies on the January 2010 figures as a starting benchmark, and because there’s significant month-to-month volatility (seasonality) in the log export data, we also track the annual trade volumes and unit-prices, as a way to smooth out the monthly oscillations. So, let’s look into this a bit closer, further below.

See Figure 4, below. If we focus on annual U.S. red oak log exports instead of the monthly figures, we see a similar directional trend: higher annual shipment volumes during the past 14 years (about 1.5x); and lower average annual unit price, on a relative basis. Year-to-date, 2025 shipped volume of U.S. hardwood log exports is down about 1.0% compared to the same time last year.

Looking ahead, we expect global desire for hardwood logs and lumber will continue to increase, while growth in actual transactional volume to individual countries, and for individual species, may vary widely due – in the short term – to changes in trade policy (tariffs), economic expansion, and population demographics in key trade partner countries. If you or your stakeholders have a project that might benefit from our in-depth approach to market research, we invite you to contact our seasoned analytics team at FORECON for a consultation and quote. Our team can help!