On Friday, June 6, 2025, the U.S. Foreign Ag Service (FAS) published the April 2025 monthly export data for U.S. agricultural goods, including hardwood logs and hardwood lumber. While the FAS reports arrive roughly 35 days after month-end, we wanted to ensure our readers have immediate access to a summary of the April information, along with our insights. This data is important because April was the month the previously announced tariffs took effect. It’s also worth noting that China suspended processing of U.S. hardwood logs on March 4th. We’ll discuss that impact as well.
We saw a noticeable dip in monthly shipment volumes for April 2025 (Figure 1), following the early-April enactment of tariffs by the U.S., which was quickly met with retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods, by the affected countries. Since then, many tariffs have been amended or relaxed. But, the April export data deserves detailed review.
The reaction in average monthly unit-pricing was mixed (Figure 2). The average unit price for hardwood log exports increased 17% while volume decreased 9%, as the demand-decrease was uneven, and favored some of the higher-priced species like cherry, white oak and walnut, at the expense of red oak and maple (see Figures 3 and 4). For hardwood lumber exports, the average unit price declined 2% for the month, while volume decreased 16%, and was uneven among species, with red oak seeing the largest reduction in monthly volume (see Figures 5 and 6).
All told, the value of hardwood log exports increased 7% for the month (Figure 7), while the value of hardwood lumber exports decreased 18% (Figure 8).
Let’s turn for a moment to the U.S. hardwood trade volumes for individual countries. We see what many in the industry expected:
- monthly U.S. hardwood log shipment volume to China dropped 88%, in reaction to both tariffs (early April) and China’s suspension of U.S. log processing for phytosanitary reasons (early March); and
- a 90% increase in monthly hardwood log purchasing by China’s neighbor, Vietnam (Figure 9), suggesting significant trans-loading.
The story differed slightly for lumber, because China’s processing suspension was against U.S. hardwood logs, and not against U.S. hardwood lumber. In Figure 10, note the 41% decrease in China’s monthly purchases, and no accompanying increase from any of our top trading nations.
All told, the global hardwood trade continues to adjust to two simultaneous forces: a) all trading partners continue to recover from the impact of the Pandemic (Figure 11); and b) China’s population dynamics make significant economic expansion unlikely in the coming decades (Figure 12). Over the longer term, and depending on U.S. trade policy, we can expect to see increased trade with our other traditional partners in Asia, North America, and Europe, as well as increasing demand from the Middle East.
Closing Thoughts:
Despite the large shifts indicated by the April data, it’s important to note that several countries have since relaxed their tariffs (in July, we’ll see the FAS’ May export data). It’s also worth noting that, historically speaking, short term policy impacts tend to get smoothed out by longer term global demand for hardwood forest products. U.S. hardwoods offer sustainability and a wide selection of species, which help diversify risk for both producers and landowners in our hardwood region. As always, your friends at FORECON will continue to watch trade policy announcements closely, along with the market reaction for U.S. hardwoods. We hope you enjoyed this article and will pass it along to others in your network.