Woodland News

Earlier this month, we discussed the past 14 years’ trends in U.S. hardwood exports. Just a few days ago, the Foreign Agriculture Service published its monthly export report for March 2025, and we wanted to share our commentary and perspective with readers.

For the first three months of 2025, total hardwood log export volumes are 2.1% lower than the same period of 2024. Hardwood lumber export volumes are down similarly, at 6% below their 2024 pace. See Figure 1, below. While U.S. tariffs took effect in early April, just after the after cut-off date of the Foreign Agriculture Service’s March data, a certain amount of anticipatory purchasing behavior (however small or large) is reflected in the March data because tariff announcements had been widely publicized long ahead of their enforcement date.
 

U.S. Hardwood Log Exports:

Vietnam, Canada, and Japan posted the largest increases in their year-to-date U.S. hardwood log purchase volumes, while Turkey, Germany, and China had the largest decrease in their respective year-to-date purchases of U.S. hardwood logs. Readers will note that the gap between 1st and 2nd rank (below) is huge - over 10x.

Trends for our region’s most common four species are shown below, and illustrate how monthly average export unit-pricing has declined slightly along with monthly average export volume. See Figure 2, below.

U.S. Hardwood Lumber Exports:

UK, Japan, and Pakistan had the largest increases in their year-to-date U.S. hardwood lumber purchase volumes, while Mexico, China, and Canada had the largest decrease in their respective year-to-date purchases of U.S. hardwood lumber. Interestingly, the gap between 1st and 2nd rank is not nearly as large as for hardwood logs. And, the top 3 countries are quite different, reflecting the preferences, supply chain advantages, and impact of differential tariffs.

Focusing solely on our region’s most common four species, we see  are shown below, we see that average monthly unit pricing for red oak, cherry, and maple are all slightly higher now than in the first quarter of 2024, while monthly shipment volumes are down slightly for three of the four species (red oak being the exception). See Figure 3, below.

Staying consistent with our outlook from earlier this month, we expect global demand for hardwood logs and lumber will continue to increase over the longer term. In the short term, evolving trade policy will impact both the average monthly export volumes and unit pricing differentially for each species and country. And we’ll continue to watch the monthly trends closely. If you or your stakeholders have a project that might benefit from our customized approach to market research, we invite you to contact our experienced analytics team at FORECON for a consultation and quote. We can help!